| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50728
|
| 论文题名: | A probabilistic framework for assessing drought recovery |
| 作者: | Pan M.; Yuan X.; Wood E.F.
|
| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
|
| ISSN: | 0094-8780
|
| EISSN: | 1944-8511
|
| 出版年: | 2013
|
| 卷: | 40, 期:14 | | 起始页码: | 3637
|
| 结束页码: | 3642
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | drought
; forecast
; recovery
; risk
|
| Scopus关键词: | Correlation structure
; Cumulative precipitation
; Ensemble forecasts
; Joint distributions
; Marginal distribution
; Probabilistic analysis
; Probabilistic framework
; Streamflow prediction
; Forecasting
; Recovery
; Risk assessment
; Risks
; Soil moisture
; Uncertainty analysis
; Drought
; assessment method
; drought stress
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; streamflow
|
| 英文摘要: | A probabilistic framework is proposed to explore drought recovery and its uncertainty based on any ensemble forecast. First, the joint distribution between precipitation and drought index is established from the forecast ensemble using the copula method, which allows arbitrary marginal distributions and fine-tuned correlation structure. Then, questions like "how much precipitation is needed for recovery and its uncertainty?" and "what is the likelihood that a specified drought index threshold be surpassed given specified cumulative precipitation over a fixed period?" are studied. The application investigates how the 2012-2013 drought over central United States may recover during the forecast period from February to July 2013. The ensemble streamflow prediction method is used to create the ensemble forecast, with soil moisture percentile against climatology as the drought index. We find significant uncertainty in drought recovery given the same precipitation, suggesting that a probabilistic analysis will offer important additional information about drought risk. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880632386&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50728&partnerID=40&md5=193d6ddd3ef4d796eb617cac59793069
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6044
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, E-Quad, Olden St., Princeton, NJ 08544, United States
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Pan M.,Yuan X.,Wood E.F.. A probabilistic framework for assessing drought recovery[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(14).
|
|
|