DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13666
论文题名: Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change
作者: Smith A.B. ; Alsdurf J. ; Knapp M. ; Baer S.G. ; Johnson L.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 10 起始页码: 4365
结束页码: 4375
语种: 英语
英文关键词: biomass
; climate change
; intraspecific variation
; local adaptation
; phenotype distribution model
; phenotypic variation
; precipitation
; species distribution model
Scopus关键词: Andropogon gerardii
英文摘要: Phenotypic distribution within species can vary widely across environmental gradients but forecasts of species’ responses to environmental change often assume species respond homogenously across their ranges. We compared predictions from species and phenotype distribution models under future climate scenarios for Andropogon gerardii, a widely distributed, dominant grass found throughout the central United States. Phenotype data on aboveground biomass, height, leaf width, and chlorophyll content were obtained from 33 populations spanning a ~1000 km gradient that encompassed the majority of the species’ environmental range. Species and phenotype distribution models were trained using current climate conditions and projected to future climate scenarios. We used permutation procedures to infer the most important variable for each model. The species-level response to climate was most sensitive to maximum temperature of the hottest month, but phenotypic variables were most sensitive to mean annual precipitation. The phenotype distribution models predict that A. gerardii could be largely functionally eliminated from where this species currently dominates, with biomass and height declining by up to ~60% and leaf width by ~20%. By the 2070s, the core area of highest suitability for A. gerardii is projected to shift up to ~700 km northeastward. Further, short-statured phenotypes found in the present-day short grass prairies on the western periphery of the species’ range will become favored in the current core ~800 km eastward of their current location. Combined, species and phenotype models predict this currently dominant prairie grass will decline in prevalence and stature. Thus, sourcing plant material for grassland restoration and forage should consider changes in the phenotype that will be favored under future climate conditions. Phenotype distribution models account for the role of intraspecific variation in determining responses to anticipated climate change and thereby complement predictions from species distributions models in guiding climate adaptation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: Smith, A.B.
; Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Missouri Botanical GardenUnited States
; 电子邮件: adam.smith@mobot.org
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60771
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, United States; Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States; Weather Data Library, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States; Department of Plant Biology and Center for Ecology, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Smith A.B.,Alsdurf J.,Knapp M.,et al. Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(10)