globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13684
论文题名:
Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification
作者: Lameris T.K.; Scholten I.; Bauer S.; Cobben M.M.P.; Ens B.J.; Nolet B.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:10
起始页码: 4058
结束页码: 4067
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Branta leucopsis ; climate change ; dynamic state variable model ; global warming ; mistimed arrival
Scopus关键词: Anser ; Aves ; Branta leucopsis
英文摘要: Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
资助项目: We thank Konstantin Litvin, Alexandra van der Graaf en Daan Bos for providing data, and Jouke Prop, John McNamara, Ron Ydenberg and the Animal Ecology department at the Netherlands Institute of Ecology for useful discussions, and two anonymous referees for valuable comments. This work was funded by the Polar programme of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO ; 866.13.010), MC was funded by the ALW Open Programme of the NWO (822.01.020).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60788
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands; Theoretical and Computational Ecology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Department of Animal Ecology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Bird Migration, Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland; Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Den Burg, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Lameris T.K.,Scholten I.,Bauer S.,et al. Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(10)
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