globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13627
论文题名:
Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity
作者: Matías L.; Linares J.C.; Sánchez-Miranda Á.; Jump A.S.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:10
起始页码: 4106
结束页码: 4116
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate ; dendrochronology ; distribution ; growth ; modelling ; Pinus sylvestris
Scopus关键词: Pinus sylvestris
英文摘要: Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species’ geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: We thank L. Cavin for methodological advice, and P. González-Diaz and R. Sánchez-Salguero for helping in the tree-ring measurements and data processing. This research was funded by EU Marie-Curie (FP7-2011-IEF-300825) and Juan de la Cierva (FPDI-2013-15867) grants to LM. JCL acknowledges financial support by CGL2013-48843-C2-2-R (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and TRANSHABITAT (European Union FEDER 0087).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60789
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作者单位: Biological and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom; Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiología de Sevilla (IRNAS-CSIC), Av. Reina Mercedes 10, Sevilla, Spain; Department of Sistemas Físicos, Químicos y Naturales, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. Utrera Km 1, Sevilla, Spain; CREAF, Campus de Bellaterra (UAB), Edifici C, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Catalonia, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Matías L.,Linares J.C.,Sánchez-Miranda Á.,et al. Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(10)
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