globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13745
论文题名:
Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential
作者: Boysen L.R.; Lucht W.; Gerten D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:10
起始页码: 4303
结束页码: 4317
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bioenergy ; climate change ; ecosystem change ; food production ; mitigation
英文摘要: Large-scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass-derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ̶ but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: This study was funded by the German Research Foundation's priority program DFG SPP 1689 on “Climate Engineering – Risks, Challenges and Opportunities?” and specifically the CE-LAND project. We thank Sibyll Schaphoff for her constant improvements of the model and Julia Pongratz for kindly providing us with data on simulated historical albedo changes. We thank the referees for their constructive and detailed comments that enabled us to substantially revise and improve the manuscript.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60796
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Berlin, Germany; Now at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Boysen L.R.,Lucht W.,Gerten D.. Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(10)
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