DOI: 10.1002/grl.50647
论文题名: Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium
作者: Ault T.R. ; Deser C. ; Newman M. ; Emile-Geay J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8816
EISSN: 1944-8547
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 13 起始页码: 3450
结束页码: 3456
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal variability
; ENSO
; last millennium
; linear inverse model
; paleoclimate
; tropical Pacific
Scopus关键词: Decadal variability
; ENSO
; Last millenniums
; Linear inverse models
; Paleoclimates
; tropical Pacific
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Repair
; Tropics
; Climate models
; atmosphere-ocean system
; climate modeling
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; long-term change
; numerical model
; paleoclimate
; reconstruction
; sea surface temperature
; solar activity
; thermodynamics
; time series
; timescale
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: The magnitude of sea surface temperature variability in the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific on decadal and longer timescales is assessed in observational data, state-of-the-art (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5) climate model simulations, and a new ensemble of paleoclimate reconstructions. On decadal to multidecadal timescales, variability in these records is consistent with the null hypothesis that it arises from "multivariate red noise" (a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process) generated from a linear inverse model of tropical ocean-atmosphere dynamics. On centennial and longer timescales, both a last millennium simulation performed using the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) and the paleoclimate reconstructions have variability that is significantly stronger than the null hypothesis. However, the time series of the model and the reconstruction do not agree with each other. In the model, variability primarily reflects a thermodynamic response to reconstructed solar and volcanic activity, whereas in the reconstruction, variability arises from either internal climate processes, forced responses that differ from those in CCSM4, or nonclimatic proxy processes that are not yet understood. These findings imply that the response of the tropical Pacific to future forcings may be even more uncertain than portrayed by state-of-the-art models because there are potentially important sources of century-scale variability that these models do not simulate. Key Points NINO3.4 decadal variability is indistinguishable from multivariate red noise Reconstructions and simulations disagree on the origin of centennial variance The future of Pacific climate may be more uncertain than portrayed by models ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880775881&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50647&partnerID=40&md5=ced4342c5f61627e26a653c291c82f58
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6080
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ault T.R.,Deser C.,Newman M.,et al. Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(13).