globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13611
论文题名:
Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation
作者: Dezécache C.; Salles J.-M.; Vieilledent G.; Hérault B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:9
起始页码: 3484
结束页码: 3500
语种: 英语
英文关键词: demography ; Guiana shield ; REDD+ ; scenarios ; spatially explicit modelling ; subsidies
英文摘要: Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001–2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: We thank the handling editor and the anonymous reviewers for their comments on a previous version of this manuscript. This study is part of a PhD project funded by the French Ministry of Research and associated with the REDD+ for the Guiana Shield project, itself granted by the FFEM, the Région Guyane, the European Union and the Interreg Caraïbes Program and managed by ONF International. It was also part of the GFclim project funded by the PO-Feder Région Guyane. Finally, this work also benefited from an ‘Investissement d'Avenir’ Grant managed by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (CEBA: ANR-10-LABEX-0025).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60826
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Université de la Guyane, UMR EcoFoG (AgroParistech, CNRS, Cirad, Inra, Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane), Campus agronomique de Kourou, Kourou, French Guiana, France; CNRS, UMR LAMETA (CNRS, Inra, SupAgro, Université de Montpellier), Campus Inra-SupAgro, Bat.26, 2 Place Viala, Montpellier Cedex 2, France; Cirad, UPR Forêts et Sociétés, Montpellier, France; JRC, Bio-Economy Unit (JRC.D.1), Joint Research Center of the European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Cirad, UMR EcoFoG (AgroParistech, CNRS, Cirad, Inra, Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane), Campus agronomique de Kourou, Kourou, French Guiana, France

Recommended Citation:
Dezécache C.,Salles J.-M.,Vieilledent G.,et al. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(9)
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