DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13624
论文题名: Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum
作者: Tansey C.J. ; Hadfield J.D. ; Phillimore A.B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 8 起始页码: 3321
结束页码: 3334
语种: 英语
英文关键词: chilling
; citizen science
; forcing
; local adaptation
; phenology
; photoperiod
; plasticity
; space for time
英文摘要: One consequence of rising spring temperatures is that the optimum timing of key life-history events may advance. Where this is the case, a population's fate may depend on the degree to which it is able to track a change in the optimum timing either via plasticity or via adaptation. Estimating the effect that temperature change will have on optimum timing using standard approaches is logistically challenging, with the result that very few estimates of this important parameter exist. Here we adopt an alternative statistical method that substitutes space for time to estimate the temperature sensitivity of the optimum timing of 22 plant species based on >200 000 spatiotemporal phenological observations from across the United Kingdom. We find that first leafing and flowering dates are sensitive to forcing (spring) temperatures, with optimum timing advancing by an average of 3 days °C−1 and plastic responses to forcing between −3 and −8 days °C−1. Chilling (autumn/winter) temperatures and photoperiod tend to be important cues for species with early and late phenology, respectively. For most species, we find that plasticity is adaptive, and for seven species, plasticity is sufficient to track geographic variation in the optimum phenology. For four species, we find that plasticity is significantly steeper than the optimum slope that we estimate between forcing temperature and phenology, and we examine possible explanations for this countergradient pattern, including local adaptation. © 2017 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60854
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; The Woodland Trust, Kempton Way, Grantham, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Tansey C.J.,Hadfield J.D.,Phillimore A.B.. Estimating the ability of plants to plastically track temperature-mediated shifts in the spring phenological optimum[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(8)