globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13585
论文题名:
Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change
作者: Rogers B.M.; Jantz P.; Goetz S.J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:8
起始页码: 3302
结束页码: 3320
语种: 英语
英文关键词: biodiversity ; dispersal ; distribution model ; forecast ; fragmentation ; management ; migration ; pests and pathogens
英文摘要: Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high-elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: This work was funded by the NASA Climate and Biological Response Program (NNX11AP66G) managed by Woody Turner. We would like to thank Andrew Hansen and John Gross for valuable discussions and feedback over the course of our collaboration, NPS staff at the Great Smoky Mountains National Park for input on prior drafts, Kevin Guay and Tina Cormier for assistance with data processing, and Bill Monahan for thoughtful suggestions. Results described in this paper are available through the USGS ScienceBase (https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/57d6f951e4b090824ff87bee).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60871
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA, United States; School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, 1295 South Knoles Drive, Flagstaff, AZ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Rogers B.M.,Jantz P.,Goetz S.J.. Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(8)
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