DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13589
论文题名: Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years
作者: Flockhart D.T.T. ; Brower L.P. ; Ramirez M.I. ; Hobson K.A. ; Wassenaar L.I. ; Altizer S. ; Norris D.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 7 起始页码: 2565
结束页码: 2576
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Asclepias
; carbon
; Danaus plexippus
; hydrogen
; migratory connectivity
; provenance
; seasonal migration
; stable isotopes
Scopus关键词: Asclepias
; Danaus plexippus
; Hexapoda
英文摘要: Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long-distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate-related factors best-predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36–0.41) followed by the north-central (0.17; 0.14–0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11–0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12–0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08–0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07–0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid-1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional-specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long-term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: Flockhart, D.T.T.
; Department of Integrative Biology, University of GuelphCanada
; 电子邮件: dflockha@uoguelph.ca
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60904
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada; Department of Biology, Sweet Briar College, Sweet Briar, VA, United States; Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro No. 8701, C.P. 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico; Environment Canada, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; Department of Biology, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; International Atomic Energy Agency, Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, Vienna, Austria; Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Flockhart D.T.T.,Brower L.P.,Ramirez M.I.,et al. Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(7)