globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13487
论文题名:
Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types
作者: Acácio V.; Dias F.S.; Catry F.X.; Rocha M.; Moreira F.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:3
起始页码: 1199
结束页码: 1217
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; cork oak ; deciduous oaks ; holm oak ; land use change ; Mediterranean ecosystems ; Quercus ; wildfire
Scopus关键词: Quercus ; Quercus suber
英文摘要: The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966–2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: We acknowledge the Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, IPMA, I.P.) for the precipitation data (dataset PT02) used in this study. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu) Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones, and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi: 10.1029/2008JD10201. We acknowledge Xuebin Zhang and Feng Yang at the Climate Research Branch of Meteorological Service of Canada for developing and maintaining rclimdex. We also would like to thank Fireland Project (PTDC/AGR-CFL/104651/2008). We thank J. Carreiras for help with climatic data collection and for comments on a previous version of the manuscript. This research was funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, FCT), fellowship number SFRH/BPD/80598/2011 to V. Acácio, fellowship number SFRH/BD/69021/2010 to F.S. Dias, and fellowship number SFRH/BPD/93373/2013 to F.X. Catry. F. Moreira was funded by the REN Biodiversity Chair and FCT (IF/01053/2015). The authors thank four anonymous reviewers whose comments strongly improved previous versions of the manuscript.
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被引频次[WOS]:59   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61022
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Centre for Applied Ecology (CEABN/InBIO), School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, Lisbon, Portugal; REN Biodiversity Chair, CIBIO/InBIO, University of Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Acácio V.,Dias F.S.,Catry F.X.,et al. Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(3)
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