globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447
论文题名:
Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
作者: Alexander P.; Prestele R.; Verburg P.H.; Arneth A.; Baranzelli C.; Batista e Silva F.; Brown C.; Butler A.; Calvin K.; Dendoncker N.; Doelman J.C.; Dunford R.; Engström K.; Eitelberg D.; Fujimori S.; Harrison P.A.; Hasegawa T.; Havlik P.; Holzhauer S.; Humpenöder F.; Jacobs-Crisioni C.; Jain A.K.; Krisztin T.; Kyle P.; Lavalle C.; Lenton T.; Liu J.; Meiyappan P.; Popp A.; Powell T.; Sands R.D.; Schaldach R.; Stehfest E.; Steinbuks J.; Tabeau A.; van Meijl H.; Wise M.A.; Rounsevell M.D.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:2
起始页码: 767
结束页码: 781
语种: 英语
英文关键词: cropland ; land cover ; land use ; model inter-comparison ; uncertainty
英文摘要: Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: The research in this article has been supported by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme projects LUC4C (Grant No. 603542) and SIGMA (Grant No. 603719) and under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme project SUSFANS (Grant No. 633692). None of the results reported in this article are the official positions of the organisations named here.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61064
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, Italy; Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, Belgium; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, United Kingdom; Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan; Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, United States; Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, United States; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, Germany; Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington, DC, United States; LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Alexander P.,Prestele R.,Verburg P.H.,et al. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(2)
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