DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13457
论文题名: Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review
作者: Runting R.K. ; Bryan B.A. ; Dee L.E. ; Maseyk F.J.F. ; Mandle L. ; Hamel P. ; Wilson K.A. ; Yetka K. ; Possingham H.P. ; Rhodes J.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 1 起始页码: 28
结束页码: 41
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon sequestration
; cumulative impacts
; decision making
; food provision
; global change
; global warming
; land use change
; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: carbon sequestration
; climate change
; climate effect
; decision making
; ecosystem service
; food supply
; global change
; land use change
; resource allocation
; resource management
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: Runting, R.K.
; School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandAustralia
; 电子邮件: r.runting@uq.edu.au
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61164
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; CSIRO, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA, Australia; Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Runting R.K.,Bryan B.A.,Dee L.E.,et al. Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(1)