DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13776
论文题名: Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals
作者: Hindell M.A. ; Sumner M. ; Bestley S. ; Wotherspoon S. ; Harcourt R.G. ; Lea M.-A. ; Alderman R. ; Mcmahon C.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bio-telemetry
; Climate change
; Environmental variability
; Integrated marine observing system
; Macquarie Island
; Population trends
; Species distribution models
英文摘要: Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub-Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co-variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub-Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer-term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (-1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long-term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61200
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies Hobart Australia; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC University of Tasmania Hobart Australia; Australian Antarctic Division Kingston Australia; Department of Biological Sciences Faculty of Science and Engineering Macquarie University Sydney Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment Hobart Australia; Sydney Institute of Marine Science Mosman Australia
Recommended Citation:
Hindell M.A.,Sumner M.,Bestley S.,et al. Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01