DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13723
论文题名: Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with "optimally" integrated ecosystem models
作者: Zhu Z. ; Piao S. ; Lian X. ; Myneni R.B. ; Peng S. ; Yang H.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Attribution
; Bayesian model averaging
; Climate change
; Remote sensing
; Seasonal change
; Vegetation greening
英文摘要: Significant increases in remotely sensed vegetation indices in the northern latitudes since the 1980s have been detected and attributed at annual and growing season scales. However, we presently lack a systematic understanding of how vegetation responds to asymmetric seasonal environmental changes. In this study, we first investigated trends in the seasonal mean leaf area index (LAI) at northern latitudes (north of 30°N) between 1982 and 2009 using three remotely sensed long-term LAI data sets. The most significant LAI increases occurred in summer (0.009 m2 m-2 year-1, p < .01), followed by autumn (0.005 m2 m-2 year-1, p < .01) and spring (0.003 m2 m-2 year-1, p < .01). We then quantified the contribution of elevating atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2), climate change, nitrogen deposition, and land cover change to seasonal LAI increases based on factorial simulations from 10 state-of-the-art ecosystem models. Unlike previous studies that used multimodel ensemble mean (MME), we used the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to optimize the integration of model ensemble. The optimally integrated ensemble LAI changes are significantly closer to the observed seasonal LAI changes than the traditional MME results. The BMA factorial simulations suggest that eCO2 provides the greatest contribution to increasing LAI trends in all seasons (0.003-0.007 m2 m-2 year-1), and is the main factor driving asymmetric seasonal LAI trends. Climate change controls the spatial pattern of seasonal LAI trends and dominates the increase in seasonal LAI in the northern high latitudes. The effects of nitrogen deposition and land use change are relatively small in all seasons (around 0.0002 m2 m-2 year-1 and 0.0001-0.001 m2 m-2 year-1, respectively). Our analysis of the seasonal LAI responses to the interactions between seasonal changes in environmental factors offers a new perspective on the response of global vegetation to environmental changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61222
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing China; Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China; Department of Earth and Environment Boston University Boston, MA USA
Recommended Citation:
Zhu Z.,Piao S.,Lian X.,et al. Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with "optimally" integrated ecosystem models[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01