globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13285
论文题名:
Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management
作者: Marzloff M.P.; Melbourne-Thomas J.; Hamon K.G.; Hoshino E.; Jennings S.; van Putten I.E.; Pecl G.T.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:7
起始页码: 2462
结束页码: 2474
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; management support tool ; qualitative modelling of system feedback ; qualitative network models ; range shifts ; temperate reef ; trophic cascade ; tropicalisation
Scopus关键词: biomonitoring ; climate change ; community response ; ecosystem management ; marine ecosystem ; population distribution ; qualitative analysis ; reef ; Australia
英文摘要: As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: MPM was funded by a 2011 SuperScience Fellowship from the Australian Research Council (project FS110200029). GP was supported by an ARC Future Fellowship. MPM would like to warmly thank Jeff Dambacher for introducing him to some of the qualitative reasoning concepts discussed in this paper. The authors acknowledge the key role of fishers and divers of Tasmania in reporting observations of the out-of-range species to www.redmap.org.au. Final thanks go to an anonymous reviewer and Dr Jon Reum for their constructive and thorough feedback on an earlier version of the manuscript, which considerably improved this paper.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61354
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Channel Highway, Kingston, TAS, Australia; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, TAS, Australia; LEI – Wageningen UR, PO Box 29703, ‘S Gravenhage, Netherlands; Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 84, Hobart, TAS, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Marzloff M.P.,Melbourne-Thomas J.,Hamon K.G.,et al. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(7)
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