DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13207
论文题名: Shrubline but not treeline advance matches climate velocity in montane ecosystems of south-central Alaska
作者: Dial R.J. ; Scott Smeltz T. ; Sullivan P.F. ; Rinas C.L. ; Timm K. ; Geck J.E. ; Carl Tobin S. ; Golden T.S. ; Berg E.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 5 起始页码: 1841
结束页码: 1856
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alaska
; Alpine shrubs
; Climate warming
; Elevational rise
; Lapse rate
; Range shift
; Shrubs
; Treeline
Scopus关键词: alpine environment
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; climate effect
; global warming
; montane forest
; numerical model
; satellite data
; satellite imagery
; treeline
; Alaska
; Chugach Mountains
; Coast Ranges
; Ovis dalli
; Ovis dalli
; Alaska
; altitude
; animal
; Bayes theorem
; climate change
; ecosystem
; forest
; season
; tundra
; Alaska
; Altitude
; Animals
; Bayes Theorem
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Forests
; Seasons
; Tundra
英文摘要: Tall shrubs and trees are advancing into many tundra and wetland ecosystems but at a rate that often falls short of that predicted due to climate change. For forest, tall shrub, and tundra ecosystems in two pristine mountain ranges of Alaska, we apply a Bayesian, error-propagated calculation of expected elevational rise (climate velocity), observed rise (biotic velocity), and their difference (biotic inertia). We show a sensitive dependence of climate velocity on lapse rate and derive biotic velocity as a rigid elevational shift. Ecosystem presence identified from recent and historic orthophotos ~50 years apart was regressed on elevation. Biotic velocity was estimated as the difference between critical point elevations of recent and historic logistic fits divided by time between imagery. For both mountain ranges, the 95% highest posterior density of climate velocity enclosed the posterior distributions of all biotic velocities. In the Kenai Mountains, mean tall shrub and climate velocities were both 2.8 m y-1. In the better sampled Chugach Mountains, mean tundra retreat was 1.2 m y-1 and climate velocity 1.3 m y-1. In each mountain range, the posterior mode of tall woody vegetation velocity (the complement of tundra) matched climate velocity better than either forest or tall shrub alone, suggesting competitive compensation can be important. Forest velocity was consistently low at 0.1-1.1 m y-1, indicating treeline is advancing slowly. We hypothesize that the high biotic inertia of forest ecosystems in south-central Alaska may be due to competition with tall shrubs and/or more complex climate controls on the elevational limits of trees than tall shrubs. Among tall shrubs, those that disperse farthest had lowest inertia. Finally, the rapid upward advance of woody vegetation may be contributing to regional declines in Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli), a poorly dispersing alpine specialist herbivore with substantial biotic inertia due to dispersal reluctance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61416
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Science, Alaska Pacific University, Anchorage, AK, United States; Environment and Natural Resources Institute, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, United States; Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Soldotna, AK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dial R.J.,Scott Smeltz T.,Sullivan P.F.,et al. Shrubline but not treeline advance matches climate velocity in montane ecosystems of south-central Alaska[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(5)