globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13132
论文题名:
Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe
作者: Rose H.; Caminade C.; Bolajoko M.B.; Phelan P.; van Dijk J.; Baylis M.; Williams D.; Morgan E.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:3
起始页码: 1271
结束页码: 1285
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation ; Climate change ; Climate impact mitigation ; Distribution shift ; Europe ; Gastrointestinal nematode ; Haemonchus contortus ; Infection pressure ; Q0
Scopus关键词: Haemonchus contortus ; Invertebrata ; Ovis ; Ovis aries ; animal ; animal dispersal ; animal husbandry ; basic reproduction number ; climate change ; Europe ; Haemonchiasis ; Haemonchus ; Markov chain ; parasitology ; physiology ; risk assessment ; sheep ; Sheep Diseases ; theoretical model ; transmission ; veterinary ; Animal Distribution ; Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Basic Reproduction Number ; Climate Change ; Europe ; Haemonchiasis ; Haemonchus ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment ; Sheep ; Sheep Diseases ; Stochastic Processes
英文摘要: Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61453
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Life Sciences Building, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol, United Kingdom; School of Veterinary Sciences, University of Bristol, Langford House, Langford, United Kingdom; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Cantocks Close, Bristol, United Kingdom; School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, The Farr Institute HeRC, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; National Veterinary Research Institute, P.M.B. 01, Vom, Plateau State, Nigeria; Animal and Grassland Research and Innovation Centre, Teagasc, Grange, Dunsanny, Co. Meath, Ireland; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Leahurst, Neston, Cheshire, United Kingdom; Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Neston, United Kingdom; Department of Infection Biology, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Rose H.,Caminade C.,Bolajoko M.B.,et al. Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(3)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Rose H.]'s Articles
[Caminade C.]'s Articles
[Bolajoko M.B.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Rose H.]'s Articles
[Caminade C.]'s Articles
[Bolajoko M.B.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Rose H.]‘s Articles
[Caminade C.]‘s Articles
[Bolajoko M.B.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.