DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12714
论文题名: Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010
作者: Fuchs R. ; Herold M. ; Verburg P.H. ; Clevers J.G.P.W. ; Eberle J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 1 起始页码: 299
结束页码: 313
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Assessment
; Back casting
; Climate
; Greenhouse gas
; Historic ecology
; Historic land dynamic assessment
; Land cover
; Land use
; Land-use history
Scopus关键词: agriculture
; biodiversity
; climate change
; ecosystem
; environmental protection
; Europe
; geographic mapping
; grassland
; history
; industry
; statistics and numerical data
; trends
; Agriculture
; Biodiversity
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Ecosystem
; Europe
; Geographic Mapping
; Grassland
; History, 20th Century
; History, 21st Century
; Industry
英文摘要: Historic land-cover/use change is important for studies on climate change, soil carbon, and biodiversity assessments. Available reconstructions focus on the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). This leads to a serious underestimation of land-cover/use dynamics with impacts on the biogeochemical and environmental assessments based on these reconstructions. In this study, we quantified to what extent land-cover/use reconstructions underestimate land-cover/use changes in Europe for the 1900-2010 period by accounting for net changes only. We empirically analyzed available historic land-change data, quantified their uncertainty, corrected for spatial-temporal effects and identified underlying processes causing differences between gross and net changes. Gross changes varied for different land classes (largest for forest and grassland) and led to two to four times the amount of net changes. We applied the empirical results of gross change quantities in a spatially explicit reconstruction of historic land change to reconstruct gross changes for the EU27 plus Switzerland at 1 km spatial resolution between 1950 and 2010. In addition, the reconstruction was extended back to 1900 to explore the effects of accounting for gross changes on longer time scales. We created a land-change reconstruction that only accounted for net changes for comparison. Our two model outputs were compared with five commonly used global reconstructions for the same period and area. In our reconstruction, gross changes led in total to a 56% area change (ca. 0.5% yr-1) between 1900 and 2010 and cover twice the area of net changes. All global reconstructions used for comparison estimated fewer changes than our gross change reconstruction. Main land-change processes were cropland/grassland dynamics and afforestation, and also deforestation and urbanization. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61699
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Laboratory of Geoinformation Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Institute for Geography, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Fuchs R.,Herold M.,Verburg P.H.,et al. Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(1)