DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12914
论文题名: Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change
作者: Duputié A. ; Rutschmann A. ; Ronce O. ; Chuine I.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 8 起始页码: 3062
结束页码: 3073
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climatic niche
; European beech
; Phenology
; Scots pine
; Sessile oak
; Species distribution model
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate effect
; geographical distribution
; geographical variation
; phenology
; plasticity
; tree
; Fagus
; Fagus sylvatica
; Pinus sylvestris
; Quercus petraea
; adaptation
; beech
; biological model
; climate
; climate change
; Europe
; oak
; phenotype
; physiology
; pine
; season
; Adaptation, Physiological
; Climate
; Climate Change
; Europe
; Fagus
; Models, Biological
; Phenotype
; Pinus
; Quercus
; Seasons
英文摘要: Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61713
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Laboratoire EEP, CNRS UMR 8198, Université Lille1, Villeneuve d'Ascq Cedex, France; CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, 1919 route de Mende, Montpellier Cedex 05, France; Station d'Ecologie Expérimentale du CNRS à Moulis, Unité de Service et Recherche 2936, Moulis, France; Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution Université Montpellier 2, CNRS, IRD, CC65, Place Eugène Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
Recommended Citation:
Duputié A.,Rutschmann A.,Ronce O.,et al. Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(8)