globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12903
论文题名:
The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO<inf>2,</inf> and land use
作者: Zhang K.; de Almeida Castanho A.D.; Galbraith D.R.; Moghim S.; Levine N.M.; Bras R.L.; Coe M.T.; Costa M.H.; Malhi Y.; Longo M.; Knox R.G.; Mcknight S.; Wang J.; Moorcroft P.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期:7
起始页码: 2569
结束页码: 2587
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Amazon ; Biomass ; Climate change ; CO2 fertilization ; Deforestation ; Fire ; Land use ; Terrestrial biosphere model ; Water stress
Scopus关键词: aboveground biomass ; biological production ; biosphere ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; climate effect ; deforestation ; ecosystem response ; forest cover ; forest fire ; land use change ; terrestrial ecosystem ; water stress ; Amazonia
英文摘要: There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61780
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (HyDROS) Laboratory, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; The Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, United States; Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States; Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Vicosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Zhang K.,de Almeida Castanho A.D.,Galbraith D.R.,et al. The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO<inf>2,</inf> and land use[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(7)
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