globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12868
论文题名:
Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change
作者: Descombes P.; Wisz M.S.; Leprieur F.; Parravicini V.; Heine C.; Olsen S.M.; Swingedouw D.; Kulbicki M.; Mouillot D.; Pellissier L.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期:7
起始页码: 2479
结束页码: 2487
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Fish ; Fossil ; Sea surface temperature ; Specialists ; Species distribution model ; Species richness
Scopus关键词: bleaching ; climate change ; coral reef ; environmental disturbance ; fish ; fossil ; global warming ; population distribution ; sea surface temperature ; specialist ; species diversity ; species richness ; Malay Archipelago ; Anthozoa
英文摘要: Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61787
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作者单位: Unit of Ecology and Evolution, University of Fribourg, Ch. du Musée 10, Fribourg, Switzerland; Department of Ecology and Environment, DHI-Group, Hørsholm, Denmark; Laboratoire Ecologie des Systèmes Marins Côtiers UMR 5119, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, UM2, UM1, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 5, France; CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, LABEX 'CORAIL', University of Perpignan, Perpignan, France; CESAB-FRB, Immeuble Henri Poincaré, Domaine du Petit Arbois, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 3, France; EarthByte Group, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Shell International Exploration and Production, The Hague, Netherlands; Center for Ocean and Ice Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, Denmark; EPOC, CNRS, Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy St Hilaire, Pessac cedex, France; Laboratoire Arago, UR CoReUs, Institut pour la Recherche en Développement, Labex Corail, B.P. 44, Banyuls/mer, France; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Descombes P.,Wisz M.S.,Leprieur F.,et al. Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(7)
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