globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12751
论文题名:
Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate
作者: Neuner S.; Albrecht A.; Cullmann D.; Engels F.; Griess V.C.; Hahn W.A.; Hanewinkel M.; Härtl F.; Kölling C.; Staupendahl K.; Knoke T.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期:2
起始页码: 935
结束页码: 946
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate effects ; Forest management ; Risk ; Soil conditions ; Survival probability ; Tree species mixture
Scopus关键词: climate change ; climate conditions ; climate effect ; forest management ; forestry policy ; probability ; risk assessment ; stand dynamics ; survival ; tree ; Europe ; Fagus sylvatica ; Picea abies ; beech ; biodiversity ; climate change ; drought ; environmental protection ; forest ; Germany ; heat ; longevity ; physiology ; spruce ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Droughts ; Fagus ; Forests ; Germany ; Hot Temperature ; Longevity ; Picea
英文摘要: Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65 000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS) - part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network - predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61799
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Institute of Forest Management, Center of Life and Food Sciences Weihenstephan, Technische Universität München, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, Freising, Germany; Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg, Wonnhaldestr. 4, Freiburg, Germany; Research Institute for Forest Ecology and Forestry Rhineland-Palatinate - FAWF, Hauptstrasse 16, Trippstadt, Germany; Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, ForestSciences Centre, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Chair of Forestry Economics and Planning, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, Freiburg, Germany; Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (LWF), Hans-Carl-v.-Carlowitz-Platz 1, Freising, Germany; ARGUS Forstplanung, Hinterm Berg 1a, Worpswede, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Neuner S.,Albrecht A.,Cullmann D.,et al. Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(2)
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