DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12901
论文题名: Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning
作者: van Hooidonk R. ; Maynard J.A. ; Liu Y. ; Lee S.-K.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 9 起始页码: 3389
结束页码: 3401
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate model
; Coral reefs
; Dynamical downscaling
; Refugia
; Statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; conservation planning
; coral bleaching
; coral reef
; downscaling
; sea surface temperature
; Andros [Bahamas]
; Bahamas
; Caribbean Islands
; Anthozoa
; animal
; Anthozoa
; biological model
; Caribbean
; climate change
; coral reef
; environmental protection
; geographic mapping
; physiology
; population dynamics
; Animals
; Anthozoa
; Caribbean Region
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Coral Reefs
; Geographic Mapping
; Models, Biological
; Population Dynamics
英文摘要: Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040-2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within ±10 years for 72% of the reef locations. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61819
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, United States; Cooperative Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, United States; Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL USR 3278 CNRS - EPHE, CRIOBE, Papetoai, Moorea, France; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
van Hooidonk R.,Maynard J.A.,Liu Y.,et al. Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(9)