DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12808
论文题名: Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity
作者: Challinor A.J. ; Parkes B. ; Ramirez-Villegas J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 4 起始页码: 1679
结束页码: 1688
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Crop model
; Crop yield
; Food production
; Land use
Scopus关键词: climate change
; crop yield
; cropping practice
; food production
; land use change
; maize
; modeling
; yield response
; Zea mays
; agriculture
; biological model
; climate change
; crop
; geography
; growth, development and aging
; meta analysis
; procedures
; Agriculture
; Climate Change
; Crops, Agricultural
; Geography
; Models, Biological
英文摘要: Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61882
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark; LOCEAN, University Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia; UPMC, LOCEAN IPSL, Paris 05, France
Recommended Citation:
Challinor A.J.,Parkes B.,Ramirez-Villegas J.. Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(4)