DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12401
论文题名: Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: A population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data
作者: Farrer E.C. ; Ashton I.W. ; Knape J. ; Suding K.N.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 4 起始页码: 1238
结束页码: 1250
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Community dynamics
; Competition
; Diversity
; Global warming
; Nitrogen deposition
; Snow
; Tundra
Scopus关键词: atmospheric deposition
; climate change
; community dynamics
; global change
; global warming
; modeling
; nitrogen
; plant
; population dynamics
; precipitation assessment
; temperature profile
; tundra
; nitrogen
; biological model
; climate change
; ecosystem
; plant
; population dynamics
; temperature
; United States
; Climate Change
; Colorado
; Ecosystem
; Models, Biological
; Nitrogen
; Plants
; Population Dynamics
; Temperature
英文摘要: Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61939
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 94720 CA, United States; Inventory and Monitoring Program, Northern Great Plains Network, National Park Service, Rapid City, 57701 SD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Farrer E.C.,Ashton I.W.,Knape J.,et al. Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: A population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(4)