DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12463
论文题名: Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios
作者: Thompson S.E. ; Levin S. ; Rodriguez-Iturbe I.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 4 起始页码: 1299
结束页码: 1312
语种: 英语
英文关键词: California
; Climate change
; Edaphic
; Multiple stressors
; Phytophthora cinnamomi
; Plant pathogen
; Rainfall
; Stochastic modeling
Scopus关键词: climate change
; eukaryote
; global change
; numerical model
; pathogen
; rainfall
; soil temperature
; species occurrence
; stochasticity
; California
; United States
; Phytophthora cinnamomi
; rain
; biological model
; climate change
; microbiology
; pathogenicity
; physiology
; Phytophthora
; plant disease
; season
; statistics
; temperature
; United States
; Climate Change
; Models, Biological
; Phytophthora
; Plant Diseases
; Rain
; Seasons
; Soil Microbiology
; Southwestern United States
; Stochastic Processes
; Temperature
英文摘要: Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200 000 km2 under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61954
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94710, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States
Recommended Citation:
Thompson S.E.,Levin S.,Rodriguez-Iturbe I.. Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(4)