globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12364
论文题名:
Modeling daily flowering probabilities: Expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology
作者: Allen J.M.; Terres M.A.; Katsuki T.; Iwamoto K.; Kobori H.; Higuchi H.; Primack R.B.; Wilson A.M.; Gelfand A.; Silander J.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期:4
起始页码: 1251
结束页码: 1263
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian ; Prunus × yedoensis ; Prunus jamasakura ; Prunus lannesiana ; Prunus spachiana ; Survival model ; Time to event model ; Vernalization ; Weather
Scopus关键词: Bayesian analysis ; climate change ; climate effect ; flowering ; numerical model ; phenology ; probability ; regression analysis ; survival ; time series analysis ; tree ; vernalization ; Hachioji ; Honshu ; Japan ; Kanto ; Tokyo [Kanto] ; Aves ; Hexapoda ; Prunus ; Prunus jamasakura ; Prunus serrulata var. lannesiana ; Prunus subhirtella ; Bayes theorem ; biological model ; climate change ; flower ; Japan ; longitudinal study ; probability ; Prunus ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; Flowers ; Japan ; Longitudinal Studies ; Models, Biological ; Probability ; Prunus
英文摘要: Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species' responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29-year, individual-level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time-varying (chill and heat units) and time-invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2-6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time-to-event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61962
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road Unit 3043, Storrs CT 06269-3043, United States; Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Box 90251, Durham NC, 27708-0251, United States; Forest Bio-Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan; Tama Forest Science Garden, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1833-81 Todori, Hachioji, Tokyo 193-0843, Japan; Department of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, 3-3-1 Ushikubo-nishi, Tsuzuki-ku, Yokohama 224-0015, Japan; Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, SFC Fujisawa, Kanagawa 252-0882, Japan; Biology Department, Boston University, 5 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06520, United States

Recommended Citation:
Allen J.M.,Terres M.A.,Katsuki T.,et al. Modeling daily flowering probabilities: Expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(4)
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