DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12412
论文题名: Carbon-temperature-water change analysis for peanut production under climate change: A prototype for the AgMIP coordinated climate-crop modeling project (C3MP)
作者: Ruane A.C. ; Mcdermid S. ; Rosenzweig C. ; Baigorria G.A. ; Jones J.W. ; Romero C.C. ; Dewayne Cecil L.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 2 起始页码: 394
结束页码: 407
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AgMIP
; Agriculture
; C3MP
; Carbon dioxide, temperature, and water
; Climate change
; Climate impacts
; Crop model
; Impacts response surface
Scopus关键词: carbon dioxide enrichment
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop production
; crop yield
; legume
; Alabama
; Henry County [Alabama]
; United States
; Arachis hypogaea
; carbon
; water
; AgMIP
; agriculture
; article
; biological model
; C3MP
; carbon dioxide, temperature, and water
; climate change
; climate impacts
; computer simulation
; crop model
; evaluation study
; growth, development and aging
; impacts response surface
; metabolism
; methodology
; peanut
; temperature
; United States
; AgMIP
; agriculture
; C3MP
; carbon dioxide, temperature, and water
; climate change
; climate impacts
; crop model
; impacts response surface
; Agriculture
; Alabama
; Arachis hypogaea
; Carbon
; Climate Change
; Computer Simulation
; Models, Biological
; Temperature
; Water
英文摘要: Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62002
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; NASA Postdoctoral Program, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, United States; Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, United States; Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Global Science and Technology, Inc., Asheville, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ruane A.C.,Mcdermid S.,Rosenzweig C.,et al. Carbon-temperature-water change analysis for peanut production under climate change: A prototype for the AgMIP coordinated climate-crop modeling project (C3MP)[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(2)