DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12587
论文题名: Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight
作者: Sparks A.H. ; Forbes G.A. ; Hijmans R.J. ; Garrett K.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 12 起始页码: 3621
结束页码: 3631
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Phytophthora infestans
; Climate change
; Food security
; Plant disease management
; Plant pathology
; Potato late blight
Scopus关键词: Phytophthora infestans
; climate change
; computer simulation
; forecasting
; geographic mapping
; geography
; humidity
; microbiology
; Phytophthora infestans
; plant disease
; potato
; procedures
; temperature
; theoretical model
; Climate Change
; Computer Simulation
; Forecasting
; Geographic Mapping
; Geography
; Humidity
; Models, Theoretical
; Phytophthora infestans
; Plant Diseases
; Solanum tuberosum
; Temperature
英文摘要: Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world. We used a metamodel and considered three global climate models for the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for three 20-year time-slices: 2000-2019, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099. In addition to global analyses, five regions were evaluated where potato is an important crop: the Andean Highlands, Indo-Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Highlands, Southeast Asian Highlands, Ethiopian Highlands, and Lake Kivu Highlands in Sub-Saharan Africa. We found that the average global risk of potato late blight increases initially, when compared with historic climate data, and then declines as planting dates shift to cooler seasons. Risk in the agro-ecosystems analyzed, varied from a large increase in risk in the Lake Kivu Highlands in Rwanda to decreases in the Southeast Asian Highlands of Indonesia. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62027
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Plant Sciences Center, Manhattan, KS, United States; International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines; International Potato Center, 12 Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, China; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sparks A.H.,Forbes G.A.,Hijmans R.J.,et al. Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(12)