globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12520
论文题名:
How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
作者: Bassu S.; Brisson N.; Durand J.-L.; Boote K.; Lizaso J.; Jones J.W.; Rosenzweig C.; Ruane A.C.; Adam M.; Baron C.; Basso B.; Biernath C.; Boogaard H.; Conijn S.; Corbeels M.; Deryng D.; De Sanctis G.; Gayler S.; Grassini P.; Hatfield J.; Hoek S.; Izaurralde C.; Jongschaap R.; Kemanian A.R.; Kersebaum K.C.; Kim S.-H.; Kumar N.S.; Makowski D.; Müller C.; Nendel C.; Priesack E.; Pravia M.V.; Sau F.; Shcherbak I.; Tao F.; Teixeira E.; Timlin D.; Waha K.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期:7
起始页码: 2301
结束页码: 2320
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AgMIP ; Climate ; Maize ; Model intercomparison ; Simulation ; Temperature ; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: carbon dioxide ; climate change ; climate effect ; computer simulation ; crop production ; crop yield ; maize ; modeling ; temperature effect ; uncertainty analysis ; Ames ; Brazil ; France ; Iowa ; Morogoro [Tanzania] ; Tanzania ; United States ; Zea mays ; carbon dioxide ; water ; biological model ; climate change ; crop ; geography ; growth, development and aging ; maize ; metabolism ; temperature ; Carbon Dioxide ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Geography ; Models, Biological ; Temperature ; Water ; Zea mays
英文摘要: Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha-1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 μmol mol-1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. © 2014 John Wiley.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62058
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Unité d Agronomie, INRA-AgroParisTech, BP 01, Thiverval-Grignon, 78850, France; Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire sur la Prairie et les Plantes Fourragères, INRA, BP 80006, Lusignan, 86600, France; Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, P.O. Box 110500, Gainesville, FL, 32611, United States; Department Producción Vegetal, Fitotecnia, University Politécnica of Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain; Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, P.O. Box 110570, Gainesville, FL,32611, United States; Climate Impacts Group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, United States; UMR AGAP/PAM, CIRAD, Av. Agropolis, Montpellier, France; CIRAD, UMR TETIS, 500 rue J-F. Breton, Montpellier, F-34093, France; Department of Geological Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States; Department Crop Systems, Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy; Institute für Bodenökologie, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, Neuherberg, D-85764, Germany; Centre for Geo-Information, Alterra, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, 6700AA, Netherlands; WUR-Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 16, Wageningen, 6700AA, Netherlands; Cirad-Annual Cropping Systems, C/O Embrapa-Cerrados BR - Rodovia Brasilia/Fortaleza, Planaltina, CP 08223, CEP 73310-970, Brazil; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom; Unité AGROCLIM, INRA, Domaine st Paul Site Agroparc, Avignon Cedex 9, Avignon, 84914, France; Water and Earth System Science (WESS) Competence Cluster, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, 72074, Germany; Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 178 Keim Hall-East Campus, Lincoln, NE, 68503-0915, United States; USDA-ARS National Soil Tilth Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, 2110 University Boulevard, Ames, IA, 50011, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, United States; Department of Plant Science, The Pennsylvania State University, 247 Agricultural Sciences and Industries Building, University Park, PA, 16802, United States; Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, ZALF, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Str. 84, Muencheberg, D-15374, Germany; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-4115, United States; Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, New Delhi, 110012, India; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Sustainable Production, The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Lincoln, Canterbury, New Zealand; Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA/ARS, 10300 Baltimore avenu, BLDG 001 BARC-WEST, Beltsville, 20705-2350, United States

Recommended Citation:
Bassu S.,Brisson N.,Durand J.-L.,et al. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(7)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Bassu S.]'s Articles
[Brisson N.]'s Articles
[Durand J.-L.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Bassu S.]'s Articles
[Brisson N.]'s Articles
[Durand J.-L.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Bassu S.]‘s Articles
[Brisson N.]‘s Articles
[Durand J.-L.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.