DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12622
论文题名: Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure
作者: Coomes D.A. ; Flores O. ; Holdaway R. ; Jucker T. ; Lines E.R. ; Vanderwel M.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 12 起始页码: 3632
结束页码: 3645
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Forest inventories
; Forest wood production
; Hierarchical Bayes
; Temperate rainforest
; Terrestrial carbon sink
; Tree growth
Scopus关键词: adaptation
; biodiversity
; biological model
; biomass
; carbon sequestration
; climate change
; computer simulation
; economics
; forecasting
; forest
; growth, development and aging
; New Zealand
; physiology
; tree
; wood
; Adaptation, Biological
; Biodiversity
; Biomass
; Carbon Sequestration
; Climate Change
; Computer Simulation
; Forecasting
; Forests
; Models, Biological
; New Zealand
; Trees
; Wood
英文摘要: Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha-1yr-1) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62101
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Forest Ecology and Conservation Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom; UMR Peuplements Vegetaux et Bioagresseursen Milieu Tropical, Universite de la Reunion, Saint Denis Messageries, France; Landcare Research, Gerald Street, Lincoln, New Zealand; Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, United Kingdom; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Coomes D.A.,Flores O.,Holdaway R.,et al. Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(12)