DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12531
论文题名: Predicting plant invasions under climate change: Are species distribution models validated by field trials?
作者: Sheppard C.S. ; Burns B.R. ; Stanley M.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 9 起始页码: 2800
结束页码: 2814
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Archontophoenix cunninghamiana
; Climate change
; Field experiment
; Plant invasion
; Psidium guajava
; Range expansion
; Schefflera actinophylla
; Species distribution model
Scopus关键词: biological invasion
; climate change
; enemy release hypothesis
; growth
; invasive species
; range expansion
; seedling establishment
; survival
; New Zealand
; Archontophoenix
; Aves
; Invertebrata
; Lophomyrtus bullata
; Psidium
; Psidium guajava
; Rhopalostylis sapida
; Schefflera actinophylla
; Schefflera digitata
; pesticide
; Araliaceae
; Arecaceae
; biological model
; climate change
; demography
; drug effects
; factorial analysis
; growth, development and aging
; introduced species
; New Zealand
; Psidium
; seedling
; Araliaceae
; Arecaceae
; Climate Change
; Demography
; Factor Analysis, Statistical
; Introduced Species
; Models, Biological
; New Zealand
; Pesticides
; Psidium
; Seedling
英文摘要: Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced frosts with climate change may provide more suitable habitats and enable the spread of these species. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62108
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Sheppard C.S.,Burns B.R.,Stanley M.C.. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: Are species distribution models validated by field trials?[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(9)