DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12560
论文题名: Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: Future predictions and implications for conservation
作者: Lambert E. ; Pierce G.J. ; Hall K. ; Brereton T. ; Dunn T.E. ; Wall D. ; Jepson P.D. ; Deaville R. ; Macleod C.D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 6 起始页码: 1782
结束页码: 1793
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cetaceans
; Conservation
; Global climate change
; Range changes
; Species distribution modelling
; Validating predictive models
Scopus关键词: bioclimatology
; cetacean
; climate change
; climate effect
; global climate
; hindcasting
; sea surface temperature
; spatial distribution
; species conservation
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Cetacea
; Lagenorhynchus
; animal
; animal dispersal
; Atlantic Ocean
; biological model
; Cetacea
; climate change
; environmental protection
; physiology
; season
; temperature
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Atlantic Ocean
; Cetacea
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Models, Biological
; Seasons
; Temperature
英文摘要: There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62160
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences (IBES), University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, United Kingdom; Oceanlab, University of Aberdeen, Main Street, Newburgh, Aberdeenshire AB41 6AA, United Kingdom; CESAM and Departamento de Biologia, Universidade de Aveiro, Portugal; Marinelife 12 St Andrews Road, Bridport, Dorset DT6 3BG, United Kingdom; Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Inverdee House, Baxter Street, Aberdeen AB11 9QA, United Kingdom; Merchants Quay, Irish Whale and Dolphin Group, Kilrush, Co. Clare, Ireland; Institute of Zoology, Regents Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom; GIS In Ecology, 120 Churchill Drive, Glasgow G11 7EZ, United Kingdom; Project Maya, 54 Tetherdown, London N10 1NG, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Lambert E.,Pierce G.J.,Hall K.,et al. Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: Future predictions and implications for conservation[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(6)