DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12634
论文题名: Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains
作者: Lester R.E. ; Close P.G. ; Barton J.L. ; Pope A.J. ; Brown S.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 11 起始页码: 3471
结束页码: 3481
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Analogy
; Climate change response
; Ecological modelling
; Ergodic
; Estuary
; Gradient studies
Scopus关键词: rain
; climate change
; ecosystem
; estuary
; spatial analysis
; theoretical model
; time factor
; Victoria
; Western Australia
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Estuaries
; Models, Theoretical
; Rain
; Spatial Analysis
; Time Factors
; Victoria
; Western Australia
英文摘要: Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62178
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, PO Box 423, Warrnambool, VIC, Australia; Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management, The University of Western Australia, PO Box 5771, Albany, WA, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Lester R.E.,Close P.G.,Barton J.L.,et al. Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(11)