DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12662
论文题名: Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: Projections based on model analysis
作者: Glibert P.M. ; Icarus Allen J. ; Artioli Y. ; Beusen A. ; Bouwman L. ; Harle J. ; Holmes R. ; Holt J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 12 起始页码: 3845
结束页码: 3858
语种: 英语
英文关键词: GCOMS-POLCOMS-ERSIM model
; IPCC scenarios
; Karenia spp
; Nutrient stoichiometry
; Prorocentrum spp
Scopus关键词: algae
; Karenia
; Prorocentrum
; algal bloom
; biological model
; climate change
; dinoflagellate
; ecosystem
; forecasting
; geography
; growth, development and aging
; physiology
; procedures
; sea
; water flow
; Climate Change
; Dinoflagellida
; Ecosystem
; Forecasting
; Geography
; Harmful Algal Bloom
; Models, Biological
; Oceans and Seas
; Water Movements
英文摘要: Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62212
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, United States; Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, United Kingdom; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.021, Utrecht, Netherlands; Natural Environmental Research Council, National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow St., Liverpool, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Glibert P.M.,Icarus Allen J.,Artioli Y.,et al. Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: Projections based on model analysis[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(12)