DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12476
论文题名: Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
作者: Schueler S. ; Falk W. ; Koskela J. ; Lefèvre F. ; Bozzano M. ; Hubert J. ; Kraigher H. ; Longauer R. ; Olrik D.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 5 起始页码: 1498
结束页码: 1511
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate niche modelling
; Favourability function
; Forest genetic resources
; Gap analysis
; Genetic conservation unit
; Velocity of climate change
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; coniferous forest
; conservation management
; environmental monitoring
; forest management
; genetic resource
; risk assessment
; vulnerability
; Europe
; Coniferales
; biological model
; climate change
; environmental protection
; Europe
; forest
; genetics
; physiology
; species difference
; tree
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Europe
; Forests
; Models, Biological
; Species Specificity
; Trees
英文摘要: A transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33-65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62240
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Genetics, Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscapes, Hauptstr. 7, Vienna, 1140, Austria; Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, Freising, 85354, Germany; Bioversity International, Via dei Tre Denari 472/a, Maccarese (Rome), 00057, Italy; UR629 Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes URFM, INRA, Domaine St Paul Site Agroparc, Avignon, 84914, France; Northern Research Station, Forest Research, Midlothian, Roslin, EH25 9SY, United Kingdom; Slovenian Forestry Institute, Večna pot 2, Ljubljana, 1000, Slovenia; National Forest Centre, T.G. Masaryka 24, Zvolen, 960 92, Slovakia; Danish Ministry of the Environment, Nature Agency, Gillelejevej 2B, Græsted, 3230, Denmark
Recommended Citation:
Schueler S.,Falk W.,Koskela J.,et al. Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(5)