globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12325
论文题名:
Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: A comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches
作者: Estes L.D.; Beukes H.; Bradley B.A.; Debats S.R.; Oppenheimer M.; Ruane A.C.; Schulze R.; Tadross M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期:12
起始页码: 3762
结束页码: 3774
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Crop model ; Downscaling ; DSSAT ; Empirical ; Generalized additive model ; Mechanistic ; South Africa ; Triticum aestivum ; Zea mays
Scopus关键词: climate change ; climate effect ; crop production ; downscaling ; empirical analysis ; maize ; prediction ; water use efficiency ; wheat ; South Africa ; Triticum aestivum ; Zea mays ; agriculture ; article ; climate change ; comparative study ; crop ; crop model ; downscaling ; DSSAT ; empirical ; forecasting ; generalized additive model ; growth, development and aging ; maize ; mechanistic ; methodology ; South Africa ; theoretical model ; Triticum aestivum ; wheat ; climate change ; crop model ; downscaling ; DSSAT ; empirical ; generalized additive model ; mechanistic ; South Africa ; Triticum aestivum ; Zea mays ; Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical ; South Africa ; Triticum ; Zea mays
英文摘要: Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were -3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EM-MM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EM-MM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62265
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Agricultural Research Council, Institute for Soil, Climate, and Water, Stellenbosch, 2599, South Africa; Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, United States; NASA GISS Climate Impacts Group/SSP, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, 10025, United States; School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology, University of KwaZulu- Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 3209, South Africa; Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa

Recommended Citation:
Estes L.D.,Beukes H.,Bradley B.A.,et al. Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: A comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(12)
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