globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12294
论文题名:
Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change
作者: Wenger S.J.; Som N.A.; Dauwalter D.C.; Isaak D.J.; Neville H.M.; Luce C.H.; Dunham J.B.; Young M.K.; Fausch K.D.; Rieman B.E.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期:11
起始页码: 3343
结束页码: 3354
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bull trout ; Ensemble ; generalized linear model ; Model uncertainty ; Salvelinus confluentus ; Species distribution model ; Suitable habitat
Scopus关键词: climate change ; climate conditions ; ensemble forecasting ; geographical distribution ; Monte Carlo analysis ; probability ; regression analysis ; salmonid ; uncertainty analysis ; weather forecasting ; Columbia Basin ; United States ; Salmonidae ; Salvelinus confluentus ; animal ; article ; bull trout ; climate change ; demography ; ensemble ; forecasting ; Generalized linear model ; model uncertainty ; Monte Carlo method ; salmonid ; Salvelinus confluentus ; species distribution model ; statistical model ; suitable habitat ; theoretical model ; uncertainty ; United States ; bull trout ; ensemble ; generalized linear model ; model uncertainty ; Salvelinus confluentus ; species distribution model ; suitable habitat ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Demography ; Forecasting ; Logistic Models ; Models, Theoretical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Northwestern United States ; Salmonidae ; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species' range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable habitat for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Interior Columbia River Basin, USA, under recent and projected 2040s and 2080s climate conditions. The 95% interval of total suitable habitat under recent conditions was estimated at 30.1-42.5 thousand km; this was predicted to decline to 0.5-7.9 thousand km by the 2080s. Projections for the 2080s showed that the great majority of stream segments would be unsuitable with high certainty, regardless of the climate data set or bull trout model employed. The largest contributor to uncertainty in total suitable habitat was climate uncertainty, followed by parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our approach makes it possible to calculate a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species, and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62290
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Trout Unlimited, Boise, ID, United States; Arcata Fish and Wildlife Office, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Arcata, CA, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Boise, ID, United States; Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Service Center, US Geological Survey, Corvallis, OR, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT, United States; Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service (retired), Seeley Lake, MT, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wenger S.J.,Som N.A.,Dauwalter D.C.,et al. Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(11)
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