DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12289
论文题名: Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change
作者: Fordham D.A. ; Mellin C. ; Russell B.D. ; Akçakaya R.H. ; Bradshaw C.J.A. ; Aiello-Lammens M.E. ; Caley J.M. ; Connell S.D. ; Mayfield S. ; Shepherd S.A. ; Brook B.W.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 10 起始页码: 3224
结束页码: 3237
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Abalone
; Demographic processes
; Ecological niche model
; Extinction risk
; Marine biodiversity conservation
; Marine species distribution model
; Mechanistic model
; Metapopulation dynamics
; Population viability analysis
; Source-sink dynamics
Scopus关键词: abundance
; biodiversity
; climate change
; extinction risk
; metapopulation
; physiological response
; population dynamics
; population growth
; population size
; range expansion
; range size
; snail
; source-sink dynamics
; species conservation
; abalone
; animal
; article
; Australia
; climate change
; demographic processes
; ecological niche model
; Extinction risk
; gastropod
; marine biodiversity conservation
; marine species distribution model
; mechanistic model
; metapopulation dynamics
; physiology
; population density
; population dynamics
; population viability analysis
; source-sink dynamics
; theoretical model
; abalone
; demographic processes
; ecological niche model
; extinction risk
; marine biodiversity conservation
; marine species distribution model
; mechanistic model
; metapopulation dynamics
; population viability analysis
; source-sink dynamics
; Animals
; Australia
; Climate Change
; Gastropoda
; Models, Theoretical
; Population Density
; Population Dynamics
英文摘要: Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62324
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: The Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia; Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No.3, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia; Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia; Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, 11794, United States; South Australian Research and Development Institute, Henley Beach, SA, 5022, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Fordham D.A.,Mellin C.,Russell B.D.,et al. Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(10)