DOI: 10.1002/grl.50236
论文题名: Decadal predictability of tropical basin average and global average sea surface temperatures in CMIP5 experiments with the HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, NCAR-CCSM4, and MIROC5 global Earth System Models
作者: Mehta V.M. ; Wang H. ; Mendoza K.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8970
EISSN: 1944-8701
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 11 起始页码: 2807
结束页码: 2812
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decadal Predictability
Scopus关键词: Aerosol optical depths
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Decadal Predictability
; Earth system model
; Model initialization
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Volcanic eruptions
; Atmospheric aerosols
; Atmospheric temperature
; Earth (planet)
; Experiments
; Oceanography
; Volcanoes
; Climate models
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; hindcasting
; ocean basin
; optical depth
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; volcanic eruption
英文摘要: This paper describes initial results from a broadscale study to assess decadal climate hindcast skills of the HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, NCAR-CCSM4, and MIROC5 global Earth System Models (ESMs) in experiments conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Analyses of decadal hindcast and simulation experiments using historical aerosol optical depths show statistically significant decadal predictability skill of global average and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during 1961-2010. The skill, however, varies by averaging region and decade. It was also found that volcanic eruptions influence SSTs and are one of the sources of decadal SST hindcast skill. In the actual climate system, however, volcanic eruptions themselves are not predictable, and therefore, their effects on the climate system can only be predicted after eruptions. In the four ESMs utilized in this study, decadal hindcast skills of SST anomalies over ocean basin size averaging regions generally improve due to model initialization with observed data. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879899547&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50236&partnerID=40&md5=cdb5aa34f28aa1fbd08fefdd26d74780
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6234
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, 5523 Research Park Drive, Catonsville, MD 21228, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mehta V.M.,Wang H.,Mendoza K.. Decadal predictability of tropical basin average and global average sea surface temperatures in CMIP5 experiments with the HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, NCAR-CCSM4, and MIROC5 global Earth System Models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(11).