globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12136
Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin
Author: Roberts J.J.; Fausch K.D.; Peterson D.P.; Hooten M.B.
Source Publication: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
Publishing Year: 2013
Volume: 19, Issue:5
pages begin: 1383
pages end: 1398
Language: 英语
Keyword: Climate change ; Cutthroat trout ; Fragmentation ; Multiple stressors ; Native fish ; Stream temperature model ; Stream warming
Scopus Keyword: Bayesian analysis ; climate change ; climate effect ; conservation management ; environmental disturbance ; environmental stress ; fish ; habitat fragmentation ; habitat loss ; mortality ; stream ; warming ; water temperature ; animal ; article ; Bayes theorem ; climate change ; ecosystem ; heat ; physiology ; population dynamics ; river ; season ; theoretical model ; trout ; United States ; Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Hot Temperature ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Southwestern United States ; Trout ; Wyoming ; Colorado River [North America] ; Oncorhynchus ; Oncorhynchus clarkii ; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus ; Salmonidae
English Abstract: Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) are now relegated to 309 isolated high-elevation (>1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a ≥90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments <7 km long, and those at the lowest elevations, are at the highest risk of extirpation. Therefore, interactions of stochastic disturbances with fragmentation are projected to be greater threats than warming for CRCT populations. The reason for this paradox is that past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss have restricted most CRCT populations to high-elevation stream fragments that are buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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被引频次[WOS]:47   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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Affiliation: Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, United States; Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, United States; Abernathy Fish Technology Center, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Longview, WA, 98632, United States; U.S. Geological Survey-Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, United States; USGS-Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Ave. Bldg. C., Fort Collins, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Roberts J.J.,Fausch K.D.,Peterson D.P.,et al. Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(5)
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