DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12099
论文题名: Nonlinear effects of climate on boreal rodent dynamics: Mild winters do not negate high-amplitude cycles
作者: Korpela K. ; Delgado M. ; Henttonen H. ; Korpimäki E. ; Koskela E. ; Ovaskainen O. ; Pietiäinen H. ; Sundell J. ; Yoccoz N.G. ; Huitu O.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 3 起始页码: 697
结束页码: 710
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Density dependence
; Microtus
; Myodes
; Population dynamics
; Population growth rate
; Rodent
; Weather
Scopus关键词: climate change
; cyclicity
; density dependence
; population cycle
; population dynamics
; population growth
; rodent
; winter
; animal
; article
; Arvicolinae
; climate change
; cold
; growth, development and aging
; population dynamics
; season
; Animals
; Arvicolinae
; Climate Change
; Cold Temperature
; Population Dynamics
; Seasons
; Finland
; Microtus
; Muridae
; Rodentia
英文摘要: Small rodents are key species in many ecosystems. In boreal and subarctic environments, their importance is heightened by pronounced multiannual population cycles. Alarmingly, the previously regular rodent cycles appear to be collapsing simultaneously in many areas. Climate change, particularly decreasing snow quality or quantity in winter, is hypothesized as a causal factor, but the evidence is contradictory. Reliable analysis of population dynamics and the influence of climate thereon necessitate spatially and temporally extensive data. We combined data on vole abundances and climate, collected at 33 locations throughout Finland from 1970 to 2011, to test the hypothesis that warming winters are causing a disappearance of multiannual vole cycles. We predicted that vole population dynamics exhibit geographic and temporal variation associated with variation in climate; reduced cyclicity should be observed when and where winter weather has become milder. We found that the temporal patterns in cyclicity varied between climatically different regions: a transient reduction in cycle amplitude in the coldest region, low-amplitude cycles or irregular dynamics in the climatically intermediate regions, and strengthening cyclicity in the warmest region. Our results did not support the hypothesis that mild winters are uniformly leading to irregular dynamics in boreal vole populations. Long and cold winters were neither a prerequisite for high-amplitude multiannual cycles, nor were mild winters with reduced snow cover associated with reduced winter growth rates. Population dynamics correlated more strongly with growing season than with winter conditions. Cyclicity was weakened by increasing growing season temperatures in the cold, but strengthened in the warm regions. High-amplitude multiannual vole cycles emerge in two climatic regimes: a winter-driven cycle in cold, and a summer-driven cycle in warm climates. Finally, we show that geographic climatic gradients alone may not reliably predict biological responses to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62509
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, PO Box 35, FI-40014, Finland; Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland; Vantaa Unit, Finnish Forest Research Institute, PO Box 18, Vantaa, FI-01301, Finland; Section of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI-20014, Finland; Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, FI-00014, Finland; Lammi Biological Station, University of Helsinki, Pääjärventie 320, Hämeenlinna, FI-16900, Finland; Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, N-9037, Norway; Suonenjoki Unit, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Juntintie 154, Suonenjoki, FI-77600, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Korpela K.,Delgado M.,Henttonen H.,et al. Nonlinear effects of climate on boreal rodent dynamics: Mild winters do not negate high-amplitude cycles[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(3)