DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12006
论文题名: Climate change and the optimal flowering time of annual plants in seasonal environments
作者: Johansson J. ; Bolmgren K. ; Jonzén N.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 1 起始页码: 197
结束页码: 207
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptive responses
; Energy allocation
; Growing season
; Life history
; Optimal control theory
; Phenology
Scopus关键词: angiosperm
; annual plant
; climate change
; climate conditions
; environmental monitoring
; global warming
; numerical model
; phenology
; reproduction
; seasonal variation
; trade-off
; article
; climate change
; flower
; plant physiology
; season
; theoretical model
; Climate Change
; Flowers
; Models, Theoretical
; Plant Physiological Phenomena
; Seasons
英文摘要: Long-term phenology monitoring has documented numerous examples of changing flowering dates during the last century. A pivotal question is whether these phenological responses are adaptive or not under directionally changing climatic conditions. We use a classic dynamic growth model for annual plants, based on optimal control theory, to find the fitness-maximizing flowering time, defined as the switching time from vegetative to reproductive growth. In a typical scenario of global warming, with advanced growing season and increased productivity, optimal flowering time advances less than the start of the growing season. Interestingly, increased temporal spread in production over the season may either advance or delay the optimal flowering time depending on overall productivity or season length. We identify situations where large phenological changes are necessary for flowering time to remain optimal. Such changes also indicate changed selection pressures. In other situations, the model predicts advanced phenology on a calendar scale, but no selection for early flowering in relation to the start of the season. We also show that the optimum is more sensitive to increased productivity when productivity is low than when productivity is high. All our results are derived using a general, graphical method to calculate the optimal flowering time applicable for a large range of shapes of the seasonal production curve. The model can thus explain apparent maladaptation in phenological responses in a multitude of scenarios of climate change. We conclude that taking energy allocation trade-offs and appropriate time scales into account is critical when interpreting phenological patterns. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62577
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Biology, Theoretical Population Ecology and Evolution Group, Lund University, Ecology Building, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden; Swedish National Phenology Network, C/o Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Unit for Field-based Forest Research, SE-360 30 Lammhult, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Johansson J.,Bolmgren K.,Jonzén N.. Climate change and the optimal flowering time of annual plants in seasonal environments[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(1)