globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2017JD026719
论文题名:
Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries
作者: Solomon S.; Ivy D.; Gupta M.; Bandoro J.; Santer B.; Fu Q.; Lin P.; Garcia R.R.; Kinnison D.; Mills M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2017
卷: 122, 期:16
起始页码: 8940
结束页码: 8950
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antarctica ; Ozone ; Stratosphere ; Temperature
英文摘要: Observed and modeled patterns of lower stratospheric seasonal trends in Antarctic ozone and temperature in the late 20th (1979–2000) and the early 21st (2000–2014) centuries are compared. Patterns of pre-2000 observed Antarctic ozone decreases and stratospheric cooling as a function of month and pressure are followed by opposite-signed (i.e., “mirrored”) patterns of ozone increases and warming post-2000. An interactive chemistry-climate model forced by changes in anthropogenic ozone depleting substances produces broadly similar mirrored features. Statistical analysis of unforced model simulations (from long-term model control simulations of a few centuries up to 1000 years) suggests that internal and solar natural variability alone is unable to account for the pattern of observed ozone trend mirroring, implying that forcing is the dominant driver of this behavior. Radiative calculations indicate that ozone increases have contributed to Antarctic warming of the lower stratosphere over 2000–2014, but dynamical changes that are likely due to internal variability over this relatively short period also appear to be important. Overall, the results support the recent finding that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole is underway and that coupling between dynamics, chemistry, and radiation is important for a full understanding of the causes of observed stratospheric temperature and ozone changes. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62600
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Solomon S.,Ivy D.,Gupta M.,et al. Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2017-01-01,122(16)
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