DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026058
论文题名: Arctic decadal variability in a warming world
作者: van der Linden E.C. ; Bintanja R. ; Hazeleger W.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2017
卷: 122, 期: 11 起始页码: 5677
结束页码: 5696
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air-sea interactions
; Arctic climate
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; decadal variability
英文摘要: Natural decadal variability of surface air temperature might obscure Arctic temperature trends induced by anthropogenic forcing. It is therefore imperative to know how Arctic decadal variability (ADV) will change as the climate warms. In this study, we evaluate ADV characteristics in three equilibrium climates with present-day, double, and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 forcing. The dominant region of variability, which is located over the Barents and Greenland Sea at present, shifts to the central Arctic and Siberian regions as the climate warms. The maximum variability in sea ice cover and surface air temperature occurs in the CO2 doubling climate when sea ice becomes more vulnerable to melt over vast stretches of the Arctic. Furthermore, the links between dominant atmospheric circulation modes and Arctic surface climate characteristics vary strongly with climate change. For instance, a positive Arctic Oscillation index is associated with a colder Arctic in warmer climates, instead of a warmer Arctic at present. Such changing relationships are partly related to the retreat of sea ice because altered wind patterns influence the sea ice distribution and hence the associated local surface fluxes. The atmospheric pressure distributions governing ADV and the associated large-scale dynamics also change with climate warming. The changing character of the ADV shows that it is vital to consider (changes in) ADV when addressing Arctic warming in climate model projections. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62652
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; Meteorology and Air Quality Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; Netherlands eScience Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
van der Linden E.C.,Bintanja R.,Hazeleger W.. Arctic decadal variability in a warming world[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2017-01-01,122(11)