DOI: 10.1002/grl.50477
论文题名: The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings
作者: Ayarzagüena B. ; Langematz U. ; Meul S. ; Oberländer S. ; Abalichin J. ; Kubin A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9003
EISSN: 1944-8734
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 10 起始页码: 2460
结束页码: 2465
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Major Stratospheric Warmings
; ozone recovery
; Stratospheric polar vortex
Scopus关键词: Chemistry-climate models
; External factors
; Ozone levels
; Ozone recovery
; Polar vortex
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Stratospheric polar vortex
; Stratospheric warmings
; Atmospheric chemistry
; Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Recovery
; Vortex flow
; Ozone
; atmospheric chemistry
; climate change
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; numerical model
; ozone depletion
; sea surface temperature
; stratosphere
; vortex
英文摘要: Future changes in the occurrence rates of major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) have recently been identified in chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, but without reaching a consensus, potentially due to the competition of different forcings. We examine future variations in the occurrence rates of MSWs in transient and timeslice simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) CCM, with a focus on the individual effect of different external factors. Although no statistically significant variation is found in the decadal-mean frequency of MSWs, a shift of their timing toward midwinter is detected in the future. The strengthening of the polar vortex in early winter is explained by recovering ozone levels following the future decrease in ozone-depleting substances. In midwinter, a stronger dynamical forcing associated with changes in tropical sea surface temperatures will lead to more MSWs, through a similar mechanism that explains the stratospheric response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879963826&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50477&partnerID=40&md5=e26d0cecf8b83a1331814de4a6752528
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6267
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, D-12165 Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Ayarzagüena B.,Langematz U.,Meul S.,et al. The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(10).