globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025405
论文题名:
Impact of global warming on the rise of volcanic plumes and implications for future volcanic aerosol forcing
作者: Aubry T.J.; Jellinek A.M.; Degruyter W.; Bonadonna C.; Radić V.; Clyne M.; Quainoo A.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
出版年: 2016
卷: 121, 期:22
起始页码: 326
结束页码: 351
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; feedback ; stratospheric aerosols ; volcanic forcing ; volcanic plume
Scopus关键词: air temperature ; atmospheric forcing ; climate effect ; climate feedback ; climate modeling ; global climate ; global warming ; mantle plume ; stratosphere ; tropopause ; twenty first century ; volcanic aerosol ; volcanic eruption ; East Java ; Greater Sunda Islands ; Java ; Merapi ; Sunda Isles
英文摘要: Volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on climate when they inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere. The dynamics of eruption plumes is also affected by climate itself, as atmospheric stratification impacts plumes' height. We use an integral plume model to assess changes in volcanic plume maximum rise heights as a consequence of global warming, with atmospheric conditions from an ensemble of global climate models, using three representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. Predicted changes in atmospheric temperature profiles decrease the heights of tropospheric and lowermost stratospheric volcanic plumes and increase the tropopause height, for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the coming three centuries. Consequently, the critical mass eruption rate required to cross the tropopause increases by up to a factor of 3 for tropical regions and up to 2 for high-latitude regions. A number of recent lower stratospheric plumes, mostly in the tropics (e.g., Merapi, 2010), would be expected to not cross the tropopause starting from the late 21st century, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This effect could result in a ≃5–25% decrease in the average SO2 flux into the stratosphere carried by small plumes, the frequency of which is larger than the rate of decay of volcanic stratospheric aerosol, and a ≃2–12% decrease of the total flux. Our results suggest the existence of a positive feedback between climate and volcanic aerosol forcing. Such feedback may have minor implications for global warming rate but can prove to be important to understand the long-term evolution of volcanic atmospheric inputs. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
资助项目: 200021_156255"The authors warmly thank Anja Schmidt, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, and Benjamin Edwards who organized the Climate-Volcano Feedbacks sessions VS32/33 at the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics 2016, which motivated this work. This work benefited from very useful discussions with Matthew Toohey and all participants of the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society 2016 workshop. We thank the Editor, Associate Editor, and three anonymous reviewers for their thorough comments and suggestions which greatly improved the original manuscript. Thomas J. Aubry acknowledges funding from the University of British Columbia through a Four Year Fellowship. Thomas J. Aubry, A. Mark Jellinek and Valentina Radić were supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada during completion of this work. Costanza Bonadonna was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (project 200021_156255). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. We thank the NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD and the ECMWF for making reanalysis data available. We thank Simon A. Carn and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center for making available the Multi-Satellite Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide Database Long-Term. We acknowledge the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program for compiling the Holocene volcanoes database. We thank the Laboratory of Computer and Information Science for making the SOM toolbox v2.0 freely available on http://www.cis.hut.fi/projects/somtoolbox/.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62794
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Aubry T.J.,Jellinek A.M.,Degruyter W.,et al. Impact of global warming on the rise of volcanic plumes and implications for future volcanic aerosol forcing[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01,121(22)
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