DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024648
论文题名: An attempt to deconstruct recent climate change in the Baltic Sea basin
作者: Barkhordarian A. ; von Storch H. ; Zorita E. ; Gómez-Navarro J.J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2016
卷: 121, 期: 22 起始页码: 207
结束页码: 217
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Baltic Sea region
; greenhouse gas effect
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global warming
; greenhouse effect
; nineteenth century
; paleoclimate
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; solar radiation
; surface temperature
; twenty first century
; Atlantic Ocean
; Baltic Sea
英文摘要: We investigate whether the recently observed temperature and precipitation trends over the Baltic Sea Basin are consistent with state-of-the-art regional climate model projections. To address this question we use several data sources: (1) multidecadal trends derived from various observational data sets, (2) estimates of natural variability provided by a 2000 year paleoclimatic model simulation, and (3) response to greenhouse gas forcing derived from regional climate simulations driven by the A1B and RCP4.5 scenarios (from ENSEMBLES and CORDEX projects). Results indicate that, over the past decades, the climate in the Baltic Sea Basin has undergone a change that is beyond the estimated range of natural variability. We test the hypothesis that this change may be understood as a manifestation of global warming due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). We find that changes in near-surface temperature support our hypothesis that the effect of GHG is needed to simulate the observed changes. The pattern correlation and regression results clearly illustrate the concerted emergence of an anthropogenic signal consistent with the GHG signal in summer and autumn in the 21st century. However, none of the 19 regional climate simulations used in this study reproduce the observed warming. The observed trends in precipitation and surface solar radiation are also partially inconsistent with the expected changes due to GHG forcing. We conclude that, besides the regional response to GHG forcing, other human-made drivers have had an imprint. Regional emission of industrial aerosols has been strongly reduced in this region, and we suggest that this reduction may be the missing driver. ©2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62804
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, California, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Barkhordarian A.,von Storch H.,Zorita E.,et al. An attempt to deconstruct recent climate change in the Baltic Sea basin[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01,121(22)