DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024651
论文题名: New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate
作者: Aalto J. ; Pirinen P. ; Jylhä K.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2016
卷: 121, 期: 8 起始页码: 3807
结束页码: 3823
语种: 英语
英文关键词: daily climate data
; indicator kriging
; kriging with external drift
; spatial interpolation
; spatiotemporal trend
; uncertainty estimate
英文摘要: Long-term time series of key climate variables with a relevant spatiotemporal resolution are essential for environmental science. Moreover, such spatially continuous data, based on weather observations, are commonly used in, e.g., downscaling and bias correcting of climate model simulations. Here we conducted a comprehensive spatial interpolation scheme where seven climate variables (daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily precipitation sum, relative humidity, sea level air pressure, and snow depth) were interpolated over Finland at the spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2. More precisely, (1) we produced daily gridded time series (FMI-ClimGrid) of the variables covering the period of 1961-2010, with a special focus on evaluation and permutation-based uncertainty estimates, and (2) we investigated temporal trends in the climate variables based on the gridded data. National climate station observations were supplemented by records from the surrounding countries, and kriging interpolation was applied to account for topography and water bodies. For daily precipitation sum and snow depth, a two-stage interpolation with a binary classifier was deployed for an accurate delineation of areas with no precipitation or snow. A robust cross-validation indicated a good agreement between the observed and interpolated values especially for the temperature variables and air pressure, although the effect of seasons was evident. Permutation-based analysis suggested increased uncertainty toward northern areas, thus identifying regions with suboptimal station density. Finally, several variables had a statistically significant trend indicating a clear but locally varying signal of climate change during the last five decades. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62901
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Aalto J.,Pirinen P.,Jylhä K.. New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01,121(8)